Table 1: Best results for NN forecasts after 100 runs of NCEL.
NN: Neural network; MC: Monte Carlo; Pr: Previous; Av: Averages
Index Meth Date Pause M Lat Lon
R NN
MC
Pr
Av
0.99868
0.99799
0.99673
0.99840		 0.462
0.010
-0.108
0.215		 0.596
0.152
-0.035
-0.043		 0.437
-0.127
0.141
0.194		 0.116
-0.063
0.032
0.145
MAD NN
MC
Pr
Av		 305
365
464
306		 305
365
464
306
0.27
0.62
0.40
0.32
1.53
2.96
1.88
1.84
1.69
2.14
1.87
1.46
Theil U NN
MC
Pr
Av
0.00062
0.00100
0.00150
0.00079
0.508
0.824
1.236
0.650
0.005
0.021
0.015
0.008
0.003
0.009
0.005
0.003
0.077
0.106
0.093
0.049
RMSE NN
MC
Pr
Av
442
562
689
500
442
562
689
500
0.37
0.77
0.66
0.46
2.07
3.63
2.79
2.17
2.46
2.88
2.70
1.96
Last Event Apr-10 126 5.0 35.27 -6.23
Forecasts and 90% onfidence Intervals NN
From
To
 Sep-11
Apr-10
Sep-13
 519
0
1246
 5.3
4.7
6.0
 36.23
32.81
39.64
 -10.59
-14.63
-6.55
MC
From
To
 Sep-15
Mar-13
Mar-18
 1971
1046
2896
 5.5
4.2
6.8
 38.75
32.78
44.73
 -8.70
-13.45
-3.96
Pr
From
To
 Mar-04
Jul-03
Dec-07
 126
0
1259
 5.0
3.9
6.1
 35.27
30.68
39.86
 -6.23
-10.67
-1.79
Av
From
To
 Sep-04
Jul-03
Mar-07
 407
0
1229
 5.3
4.5
6.2
 37.97
34.28
41.43
 -8.76
-12.00
-5.53